Information technology and society: Possible versions of the future Internet

Analysts have presented possible scenarios of development of the Internet for the next 15 years. The report was prepared jointly by Cisco and Monitor Group.

It is assumed that in future Internet audience will grow mainly owing to the population of developing countries, and QWERTY-keyboard no longer be the main interface to connect to the network. Also, analysts have proceeded from the premise that the system of Internet management in future will not change, while tariffing of access to the network, on the contrary, will change dramatically.

On the whole analysts have identified four possible scenarios for development. The first implies that the boundaries of the Internet will be blurred. In this case, in 15 years users across the world will be able to go online using a large number of available devices and the Internet will become a service center.

According to the second scenario, the Internet will become an insecure network due to the increasing number of cyber attacks. It is assumed that the World Wide Web may be substituted by safer analogues, access to which will not be cheap.

The third alternative envisions a decline of the spread of the Internet due to unstable economic situation in some countries. The last scenario assumes that the popularity of the Internet will become so great that the network will not be able cope with the flow of information because of the existing technical limitations.

Preparation of the report took about one year. The work of analysts took into account the impact on the development of the network of many factors, including legislative initiatives for regulating the Internet, investment in infrastructure and the degree of adoption of modern technologies by users.