IT and Society: The Year 2014 will see a 30 million increase in Net surfers

If current trends in Internet development and penetration remain steady the end of the year 2014 will see a 30-million increase in the number of Internet surfers. In this case more than a half of all Russians – 56% or about 63 million users - will be referred to as the most active Net surfers (daily audience). This is a prediction made by analytics of the “Internet World” project, the “Public opinion” Foundation (FOM).

Regular measurements carried out by FOM show a steady increase in the number of Internet users in Russia. The recent “Internet in Russia” study conducted in the winter 2010–2011 reads that the share of Internet users among adults reaches 43% (50 million people). Besides, three out of ten users join the active audience – surfing the Net on a daily basis. By the end 2010 the active Internet audience totaled 36 million users.

An average quarterly growth of Internet audiences in 2010 countrywide as to the monthly, weekly and daily audience was 4%, 5% and 8% respectively. Obviously, the growth rates of Internet audiences will go down, though they are unlikely to amount to less than 2–4% in a quarter, – the growth that has been recently recorded in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Constant monitoring of Internet penetration as a part of the “Internet in Russia” study (measurements have been conducted since 2002) enabled to predict Internet penetration for 2011–2014 in Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg.

As for the winter 2010–2011 Internet users in Moscow made two thirds of its population (65%), in St. Petersburg – slightly more than two thirds (70%). In four years approximately eight out of ten people in Moscow will surf Internet (with a monthly audience of 78%). If current development trends remain by the end of 2014 Internet penetration in St. Petersburg will appear considerably higher than that of Moscow: with its monthly Internet audience reaching roughly 89%.

An active growth of users among elder age-groups may be called one of the key Internet trends According to “Internet in Russia” study in winter 2010–2011 the share of Internet users in the age-group of 35–to 44-year-olds reached 55% (a seasonal growth of 12%). Exactly a year ago the same was Internet penetration level in a younger age-group – aged 25–34.

Despite the fact that the growth of Internet users among 18–24-aged is significantly lower – 7% within a season, the monthly audience in this group involves eight out of ten users. According to the forecast, by autumn 2014 the Internet audience in this specific age-group will amount to 12 million people. Around 95% of the youth will be referred to as the most active daily Internet audience.

By the late 2014 Internet penetration among the 25–34-aged and 35–44-aged population will reach its top (97–99%), while the number of Internet users in these age-groups will amount to 22 million and 19 million respectively. At the end of the observed period Internet audience will probably include 76% of the 45–54-aged population; in the 55+ year-olds group the monthly Internet audience will reach only 24%.